Is Ecuador the next Venezuela?

I’ve been in a few communal showers, but thankfully never in a prison one.

And so I’ve heard, dropping the soap is “how it starts”.

Similar to that… Ecuador is currently on a predictable path to become another Venezuela.

I for one hope it doesn’t happen, Ecuador now is certainly NOT Venezuela, still very capitalistic, but it’s just history, man.

Like when a country elects a fiery, entertaining ruler who instigates racial prejudices and violence, we know what happens.

Yea, or do we?

Like for the president to kick out the congress, install his own people, intimidate the press, eliminate term limits, install capital controls. On and on it goes until one day you think.. “oh sh*t!”

Like one Venezuelan client of mine said, “Yea, the marches, that’s how it starts, but it doesn’t do a da** thing.”

This week the president just followed the next step in his plan to convert Ecuador into another Venezuela, or Cuba…

Right now, on any amount you try to transfer out of Ecuador over about $1,000, you have to pay a 5% exit tax on the whole amount. And the max you can take out of Ecuador in cash is $10,000 tax free.

Well, the new proposal by the president wants to lower the max on the tax-free cash limit to $1,000. Effectively putting a nice cap on ALL THE MONEY in Ecuador.

Want to take it out? Going to pay that 5% tax.

Among other proposals lost in the wash are what Venezuela already has in place, like putting limits on how much Ecuadorians can spend abroad on their credit cards, etc.

My take, I’ve always been one to say you should never put more than 10% of your total portfolio in Ecuador. Ecuador’s a nice diversification, but that’s it.

Especially now, any money you put in Ecuador better be able to generate you over well over 5% return a year or its simply not worth it.

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